Mexico’s Two-Man Race

A fiery but vulnerable populist leads the contest—for now.

Mexico’s presidential campaign kicked into high gear last week when the five official candidates who will be on the July 1 ballot participated in the first of three televised debates. Questions focused on security, corruption and democracy, giving Mexicans their best look yet at their options.

The event produced two early indications. The first is that, barring any unexpected development, this is already a two-man race. The current favorite is Andrés Manuel López Obrador—popularly called AMLO—of the left-wing National Regeneration...